Beyond Counter-terror: How Drones are Reshaping Warfare in Ukraine and Israel
Advances in computer and information technology, artificial intelligence, sensors, robotics, and miniaturization have transformed military systems, particularly through the development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones. These drones now perform complex missions with minimal human interaction. In this post, I examine the impact of drones on today’s battlefield, as highlighted in two recent military operations: Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb (June 1, 2025) and Israel’s Operation Rising Lion (June 13, 2025). The innovative tactics used demonstrate the far-reaching implications for the future of military campaigns.
Background
Technology has driven changes in military weapons, tactics, and strategy throughout history. For example, the development of gunpowder enabled the development of cannons and small arms in medieval warfare, and the development of the atomic bomb completely reshaped Cold War dynamics. Recent innovations in unmanned systems and AI have accelerated this evolution. Although some have argued that their role will persist, these disruptive technologies may only have a brief window of dominance before effective countermeasures are developed and deployed. Only time will tell.
Drones gained prominence in the 2000s for their utility in U.S. counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, enabling precise strikes without risking the lives of pilots. As larger drones became vulnerable to air defenses, technological advancements enabled the development of smaller, more survivable drones, capable of carrying diverse payloads
Continuous Innovation
Demonstrating the changes possible, Ukrainian drone operators developed a novel battlefield tactic using the Hornet Queen, a large FPV drone equipped with a man-portable anti-tank grenade launcher. Unlike typical kamikaze drones, this reusable drone offers versatility in urban combat and for destroying immobilized enemy vehicles, such as tanks, with precision, preventing retrieval and repair. The grenade launcher components are sourced from hardware stores, and aiming is achieved using crosshairs on the operator’s screen, with tests showing sufficient accuracy even in strong winds. Future upgrades may include thermal imaging for nighttime operations
As a result, they are redefining how wars are fought and have become pivotal for Ukraine and Israel by offering cost-effective, asymmetric advantages. Facing unique geopolitical challenges, both nations were able to leverage drone technology and exploit insider threats by assembling and launching drones from facilities inside Iran and Russia, highlighting how autonomous systems can turn proximity into a strategic advantage. Beyond conducting intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions, drones have been modified to carry out precision strikes and combat operations, electronic warfare, logistics and resupply, search and rescue, psychological operations, and deception, as well as swarming and autonomous operations.
Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb (June 1, 2025)
Operation Spiderweb, a highly sophisticated Ukrainian intelligence operation, culminated in a daring drone attack on June 1, 2025, targeting Russian strategic air assets. Planned over 18 months, the operation struck several airbases, along with secondary targets like railways and the Kerch Bridge. The operation deployed 117 specialized “first-person view” (FPV) drones fitted with solar-powered batteries and equipped with double warheads to penetrate aircraft. The drones were concealed within prefabricated modular cabins with remotely operated roofs smuggled into Russia; some trucks traveled over 4,000 km. Using AI-assisted targeting, the drones were released near the airbases, overwhelming air defenses unprepared for short-range, insider threats. They then destroyed or damaged as many as 41 strategic aircraft, including bombers and early warning planes, with at least six bombers confirmed lost. Ukraine claims the attack caused $7 billion in damage, crippling 34% of Russia’s long-range bomber capacity, a significant blow to Russia’s cruise missile and nuclear-capable fleet.
This daring operation used unwitting drivers to reach selected targets, and in one case, even staged a truck near Russia’s FSB Headquarters. All Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) operatives reportedly escaped Russia’s FSB pursuit, and the delivery devices self-destructed. Satellite imagery, supported by Western intelligence, confirmed damage, though cloud cover obscured complete assessments. Russia claimed to have thwarted some of the attacks, and President Putin labeled the attacks as a “terrorist” act. Even though official Kremlin responses remained limited, Russian military bloggers decried it as an intelligence failure and described the attack as “Russia's Pearl Harbor”.
Operation Spiderweb highlighted Ukraine’s technological ingenuity and cunning; they used low-cost drones to achieve a significant strategic impact similar to a much costlier and challenging conventional operation. While experts view it as a creative but not revolutionary use of drone technology, it has reshaped perceptions of Ukraine’s military capabilities, potentially bolstering international support. However, many uncertainties persist regarding the full extent of damage, exact drone control methods, and the precise logistics of truck movements, with some reports suggesting autonomous or semi-autonomous drone operations. Despite these questions, Operation Spiderweb demonstrated how smaller nations can challenge superpowers, redefining modern warfare. However, the operation’s tactics, adaptable to commercially available drones, raise global concerns about inspiring non-state actors.
Israeli Operation: Operation Rising Lion (June 13, 2025)
Israel launched Operation Rising Lion just days later, on June 13, 2025. This was a multifaceted assault on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. The operation combined pre-positioned drones, covertly operated missiles, and over 200 fighter aircraft, including F-35 stealth jets, to strike more than 100 targets across Iran, including key nuclear facilities like Natanz, military bases, and leadership figures. The initial wave involved small explosive drones, reportedly deployed by Mossad operatives inside Iran, targeting air defense radars and communication nodes, creating chaos, and forging safe routes for manned airstrikes.
Israel’s strategy relied on pre-positioned autonomous systems, similar to Ukraine’s approach, with drones and precision-guided munitions smuggled into Iran and launched from within its borders, overwhelming Iranian air defenses by attacking from unexpected directions. The operation integrated autonomous drones with conventional forces, using drones as decoys and suppressors while F-35s delivered long-range precision strikes, compressing Iran’s decision-making timeline and paralyzing its response. Israel used 200 fighter jets and around 330 various munitions, targeting sites in Tehran, Shiraz, Tabriz, Isfahan, and Kermanshah, achieving “relative superiority” through speed, surprise, and technology.
The Israeli operation not only degraded Iran’s military capabilities but also shattered the regime’s confidence in its security apparatus, sending a clear message about Israel’s operational reach and technological prowess.
Broader Implications
Both operations underscore several paradigm-shifting trends in how autonomous systems impact military operations.
First, drones equipped with advanced sensor technologies provide real-time monitoring of battlefields, reducing the need for expensive manned and satellite systems. These systems offer cost-effective, low-risk, and persistent capabilities that reduce financial and logistical burdens compared to manned aircraft and satellites. By integrating unmanned systems with traditional platforms, militaries can achieve a more balanced, efficient, and highly effective air power strategy.
Second, the low cost of commercially available drones can provide advanced capabilities to smaller nations or non-state actors, introducing new complexities to global security dynamics. These include asymmetric threats, proliferation risks, attribution difficulties, and vulnerabilities in urban environments. Nations must now invest in counter-drone technologies and adapt their defense doctrines to address these complexities.
Third, both operations were able to conduct military strikes over large distances, deep into areas considered secure. This will force nations to rethink how their defenses are deployed and to invest in countermeasures to detect, disrupt, or destroy drones. Compared to traditional air defense systems, counter-drone measures must be more distributed, cost-effective, and tailored to low, slow, and small targets. They will include systems capable of radar and acoustic detection, RF jamming, GPS spoofing, lasers, and kinetic interceptors.
Fourth, when drones are coordinated and used in large numbers (drone swarms), they can saturate and overload air defense. For example, Russia has adapted to this new reality, deploying hundreds of drones nightly, with a record of over 700 on July 8, 2025. These swarms, primarily Geran drones (Russian-modified versions of Iran’s Shahed), terrorize Ukraine and target areas from the industrial east to near Poland’s border, challenging and overwhelming air defense systems.
Finally, the expanding use of autonomous systems, especially when coupled with AI, will introduce significant ethical challenges. These systems can autonomously identify, track, and attack targets without human intervention or oversight. Although the use of armed drones is governed by international humanitarian law (IHL) principles, including distinction, proportionality, precautions, and the prohibition of indiscriminate attacks, their application can present significant challenges. The principle of distinction requires drones to target military objectives accurately. However, their remote operation, delayed data transmission, and lack of on-the-ground context can lead to misidentification, risking civilian harm. Proportionality demands that civilian damage not outweigh military gains, but drone strikes, particularly those delivering explosive payloads, may cause excessive harm, especially in populated areas. Precautions in attack mandate verifying targets and minimizing civilian impact, but with the autonomy of drones and the improvised nature of weaponized civilian models, compliance may be complicated even if achievable. This could result in misidentification, civilian casualties, and violations of international laws, and, at the same time, make it difficult to have accountability for errors.
Together, these trends highlight the disruptive potential of autonomous systems; military strategists and policymakers will need to adapt to this rapidly changing landscape and its challenges.
